ML194: Raoul Pal on Russia-Ukraine, Investing in Uncertain Times & The Tokenisation of Culture
Discover 3 likely scenarios for how the war between Russia & Ukraine plays out, the outlook for different asset classes and why the tokenisation of culture through communities like Bored Ape Yacht Club is so significant.
Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder & CEO of Real Vision Group, a cutting edge financial media company.
He also runs his own macro research business the Global Macro Investor with clients including many of the worlds largest hedge funds, SWFs and family offices. He was himself previously a highly successful portfolio manager at one of the world’s largest hedge funds GLG.
A month on from Russia's invasion of the Ukraine, the world is in a more unstable position than it's been in for many decades. Countless lives have been lost and the social costs of the war have been huge, while the geopolitical stakes of the war continue to rise with every passing day.
As one of the best big picture thinkers around, Raoul is the perfect guide to help you make sense of what is going on and how to think about investing in these uncertain times.
- Raoul's 3 scenarios for how the war between Russia & Ukraine plays out
- The outlook for different asset classes including stock & bonds, commodities & crypto
- The tokenisation of culture and why the rise of communities like Bored Ape Yacht Club are so significant
We also talk about the practical implications of potential social unrest and how people should be thinking about their life choices in that context as well as Raoul's philosophy of living in the future.
Show Notes
- Introducing Raoul [00:06]
- How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affected Raoul’s day to day in the different spaces he’s involved in? [03:24]
- What has the Russia-Ukraine conflict revealed about the value of the US dollar? [04:26]
- How are all geopolitical events in recent history, from 9/11 to the ongoing Russia Ukraine war, connected? [06:26]
- How does Raoul navigate and trade geopolitics? What factors in the news cycle does he pay particular attention to? [09:18]
- How did Raoul formulate the three scenarios of how the Russian-Ukrain war would play out? [12:04]
- What makes Raoul a remarkable storyteller? How does he deliver the same market information to different audiences? [13:46]
- When did Raoul realise that he was a natural storyteller? [15:02]
- What are the three secular trends that Raoul makes use of for his macro framework? [15:47]
- How is de-dollarization playing out at present? What de-dollarization efforts are currently being done by different global powers? [16:40]
- How do swap lines work? [21:01]
- How have recent geopolitical events accelerated deglobalization? Why does Raoul believe China will become successful in localising supply chains? [22:04]
- Where does China invading Taiwan transpire in Raoul’s framework? How does not knowing geopolitical outcomes help him navigate the market? [25:46]
- In what ways has global inflation contributed to social unrest? [27:17]
- What will happen when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? [29:09]
- With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, how does Raoul see Russia’s economy at present? [31:13]
- How does Raoul currently rank his three scenarios in terms of probability? [33:05]
- Why does Raoul avoid thinking about the catastrophic consequences should World War III occur in the near future? [35:36]
- How do traditional haven assets trade at the moment? Why does Raoul prioritise buying bonds over haven assets? [36:46]
- How does supply shock affect equities? [39:30]
- What is the probability of transfer payments becoming a universal thing in the West? How will it influence potential rate increases? [42:49]
- What is the current state of crypto as Raoul sees it? Why does crypto have a high adoption rate? [44:54]
- Why does Bitcoin work well as a reserve asset? [51:46]
- What impressive developments in the crypto space has Raoul come across since starting his show Adventure in Crypto? [54:36]
- How are social tokens being scaled at the moment? [58:25]
- What does living in the future look like through a practical lens? Why does Raoul believe that tokenizing communities is the way to go? [01:01:10]
- Where does the disconnect between the macroeconomy and new digital assets begin and end? [01:07:48]
- What common mistake do people make when navigating the details of today’s tech and financial developments? [01:11:35]
- How should people start thinking practically about their lives with how recent geopolitical events are unfolding? [01:13:53]
- What freedoms can being a sovereign individual afford someone? [01:18:29]
- Closing remarks [01:20:56]
Resources
Follow Raoul online
Real Vision | Twitter | Crypto