ML175: Raoul Pal on The Art of Investing, The Rise of Digital Assets and The Past, Present & Future of Global Macro

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder & CEO of Real Vision Group, a disruptive financial media brand.

He also runs his own macro research business the Global Macro Investor with clients including many of the worlds largest hedge funds, SWFs and family offices. He was himself previously a highly successful portfolio manager at one of the world’s largest hedge funds GLG.

It’s clear that the global economy is in a state of transition at the moment. In the last decade and a bit we’ve had three major crises in the form of the 2008-09 subprime mortgage crisis, the European debt crisis in 2012 and the recent coronavirus pandemic.

There is growing disillusionment with the existing system as inequality increases and the majority of people are feeling poorer, without necessarily understanding why. This frustration is expressing itself in the form of growing populism and civil unrest all over the world.

Meanwhile the march of technology is accelerating and a new financial system and digital economy is being created before our eyes at lightning speed and whatever the outcome, the problem facing all of us is how to navigate this increasingly complex and uncertain world.

Raoul is the perfect guide to help you make sense of what is going on and in this episode we discuss:

- How we got to the current crisis point in the global economy and what that means for you
- The emerging digital asset space (including cryptocurrencies, NFTs & community tokens) and its significance as a source of return to combat monetary debasement
- The skill of investing and what Raoul has learned about it after several decades in the markets

We also cover some of Raoul’s formative moments in the financial markets, his background and some of the most interesting conversations he’s been having recently.

If you’re expecting tips on which cryptocurrencies to buy or sell this conversation isn’t for you - it’s what I hope will be an evergreen conversation charting the story of how we got to where we are and where we’re going, through the lens of one of the world’s most successful investors.

Show Notes‍

• Introducing Raoul [00:39]
• What was school like for Raoul? [03:57]
• When did Raoul first realise he was good at something? [04:31]
• Who were Raoul's mentors and what are the life lessons he learned from them? [05:12]
• How did Raoul become interested in business cycle history? [06:56]
• How do you strike the balance between rationality and intuition when trading? [09:21]
• What sets apart the best hedge fund managers from the rest? [11:48]
• How did Raoul’s prediction of collapse in the world’s financial system in 2012 play out? [14:10]
• How the European Debt Crisis endangered the Global Economy [17:24]
• What are the distinctions between the different major economies on a macro level? [20:30]
• Why do people feel poorer even though CPI inflation doesn't seem to be moving? [25:32]
• How did quantitative easing result in monetary debasement? [29:20]
• What are the current problems surrounding the digital asset revolution? How can we deal with mass unemployment from technological advancements? [33:19]
• What are the changes necessary to support the fourth turning as we migrate into an increasingly digital economy? [37:53]
• How does Raoul keep up with the fast-paced information cycle of the financial markets? [39:24]
• How can NFTs change the landscape of how artists and creators are valued? What role do communities have in developing this value system? [42:44]
• How the Metaverse could make websites and physical shops obsolete in the not too distant future [45:36]
• What has the transition from being a private investor to a more public persona been like for Raoul? Why did he decide to make the shift? [50:27]
• Closing remarks [52:43]
  

Resources‍‍

Follow Raoul online

Real Vision | Twitter

• Introduction to the Exponential Age YouTube video by Raoul Pal
• The Little Book of Business Cycles by Raoul Pal
• The Fourth Turning by William Strauss & Neil Howe
• Earning Money in the Metaverse with Piers Kicks & Raoul Pal
• The Crisis of Global Capitalism: Open Society Endangered by George Soros